Horse racing stats

Newspapers and racecards print favourite stats and jockey stats as raw wins and strike rates. For betting you need value: would following the stat have made money after commission?

Soundbite stats

“A trainer has had two winners from three runners at Ascot this month” is almost useless. The sample is tiny and there is no profit figure. Two heads in three coin tosses would not make you back heads for the rest of the afternoon.

Positive and negative

Stats can tell you to oppose a favourite as well as to back one. A course where favourites lose, a trainer–jockey pairing with a poor ROI, and a second favourite ridden by someone who is profitable at the track — that is a bet shape, not a headline strike rate.

A longer introduction lives on FlatStats.